Forecasting
Convert Patients Into Revenue Through Pipeline and Marketed Product Forecasting

Value Edge specializes in developing patient based and prescription based sales forecasting for clients in the pharmaceutical and biotechnology domains. We use bottom-up patient flow approaches to develop forecast for products. We deploy robust forecast methodologies and a user friendly excel interface to estimate Market Size, Patient Shares and Market Shares.

 

A high level graphic showcasing our methodology is shown below:

 

Value Edge brings a unique depth and breadth of skills and expertise to meet
clients Forecasting needs

Our epidemiology based forecast models are logically laid out to accurately capture
the calculation steps for the forecast

Value Edge’s excel-based forecast models are simple, intuitive and highly flexible
to address changing business needs

 

Our methodology is as follows:

 

Market Size Assessment:

We perform a detailed patient pool segmentation to accurately quantify the target patient population. We conduct extensive Secondary Research, triangulate sources in case of multiple data points, and use proxies in case of data-gaps.

Patient Share Estimation:

To assess the Peak Patient Share Estimate, Value Edge uses either of the following methodologies ~ Attribute Analysis/Calibration, Primary Market Research or Conjoint Analysis. To determine the Patient Share through the entire lifecycle, we use Mathematical Modeling of the adoption curve or an Analogue Analysis.

Conversion Parameters:

Robust methodologies have been developed to conduct deep dive into all the conversion parameters ~ Theoretical number of doses per year, Compliance, Price per dose, Entry of new players, Genericization and Patient expiry etc. All these inputs are usually client driven and convert the patient share into $ sales.

We develop risk-adjusted financial models. Once the basic revenue forecast has been generated, the forecast is further adjusted to determine:

  • Risk adjusted revenue
  • Risk adjusted net present value (rNPV)

To ensure ease of usage and training, we prepare excel based models with simple VB/macros programming. The basic model structure includes the input sheet for assumptions, the calculation engine and the interactive dashboard for output.

The Challenge

The India subsidiary of a top tier US-based pharmaceutical company wanted to assess the market size/opportunity for their 3 key brands. The forecasting results were later utilized to guide the mid-term business planning of our client.

Our Deliverable

Value Edge approached the challenge with the formulation of a three stepped approach. Firstly, we developed a sharper, quantitative patient flow for each of the brands identified through primary and secondary research. For the given market size we estimated peak preference shares using both analogue as well as primary research. Finally we used a mathematical model to develop the adoption curve. The resulting forecast was delivered in menu driven excel files with a variety of conversion parameters open for client input.